* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 54 57 58 58 58 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 54 57 58 58 58 55 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 8 9 14 14 SHEAR DIR 68 80 99 139 167 151 133 146 151 155 170 173 211 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 146 146 147 148 148 145 141 139 138 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 53 52 48 47 47 51 53 50 53 51 50 45 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 4 4 2 0 3 0 -1 0 2 2 850 MB VORT 76 71 65 64 63 60 57 46 48 54 73 80 78 LAND (KM) 1847 1959 2074 2177 2276 2365 2090 1865 1659 1463 1242 1072 922 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.9 128.2 129.6 130.9 133.5 136.2 138.4 140.3 142.2 144.4 146.1 147.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 531 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 24. 24. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. 25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.37 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 3.61 Prob of RI= 20.4% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)