* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 42 43 42 40 39 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 42 43 42 40 39 37 36 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 13 8 7 14 16 21 25 26 27 30 28 SHEAR DIR 32 51 56 53 41 38 38 53 40 44 29 41 30 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 149 148 147 147 148 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -51.8 -52.9 -51.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 63 61 55 55 53 50 53 54 54 55 63 62 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 3 1 0 2 1 -3 -2 -4 -2 -6 0 850 MB VORT 20 18 17 16 19 26 32 31 20 20 10 15 30 LAND (KM) 1497 1523 1552 1609 1666 1813 1943 2010 2061 2103 2100 2098 2121 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.2 9.5 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.7 10.0 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.7 118.3 118.9 119.4 120.7 121.7 122.3 122.9 123.7 124.2 124.6 124.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 539 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 17. 15. 14. 12. 11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.92 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 27.4% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)