* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 78 78 75 70 64 55 45 39 32 26 V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 78 78 75 70 64 55 45 39 32 26 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 11 16 10 22 26 28 29 44 53 55 57 SHEAR DIR 280 309 310 310 289 275 266 259 252 250 250 255 257 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.5 25.9 22.5 21.2 17.4 14.4 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 129 128 124 124 118 94 88 78 73 77 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 11 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 36 39 38 40 47 52 54 61 62 72 74 66 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 2 -1 -5 -1 2 4 26 7 25 29 18 -23 850 MB VORT -2 -12 -15 -5 -1 -25 -3 -3 30 2 5 4 -5 LAND (KM) 47 49 21 42 64 210 347 366 339 202 46 370 799 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.3 34.7 35.0 35.2 36.1 37.2 38.5 40.5 43.2 46.4 48.3 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 77.4 76.9 76.3 75.8 75.3 73.5 71.4 69.2 66.3 61.4 54.3 47.9 42.1 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 11 8 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 719 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -17. -23. -31. -38. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -21. -29. -35. -42. -47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -20. -30. -36. -43. -49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.94 Scaled RI index= 4.59 Prob of RI= 21.5% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)