* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 51 59 67 71 75 79 83 87 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 51 59 67 71 75 79 83 87 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 4 10 16 15 14 10 15 8 8 5 9 SHEAR DIR 221 228 336 27 50 43 58 75 71 107 82 277 297 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 159 159 157 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 60 63 66 64 60 70 68 72 61 62 56 53 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 38 45 41 37 30 50 44 46 42 51 59 85 79 LAND (KM) 969 885 811 774 736 684 688 723 825 916 1050 1206 1298 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.6 11.2 11.8 12.8 13.6 14.8 16.2 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 44.1 45.3 46.4 47.4 48.3 49.9 51.1 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.4 51.2 51.5 HEAT CONTENT 72 77 67 68 65 65 73 72 70 72 84 88 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 64 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 38. 44. 49. 53. 59. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 34. 42. 46. 50. 54. 58. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 5.94 Prob of RI= 68.3% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)