* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 54 57 58 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 54 57 58 58 58 57 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 6 7 8 7 7 9 7 8 5 8 10 SHEAR DIR 78 75 85 113 135 122 125 129 102 142 125 203 217 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 148 149 150 149 146 141 138 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 49 47 46 49 51 55 47 48 48 45 46 44 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 -2 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 79 72 64 56 55 64 47 35 49 60 83 92 86 LAND (KM) 1934 2043 2155 2260 2369 2299 2057 1844 1633 1415 1184 997 837 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.8 129.0 130.4 131.7 134.3 136.7 138.8 140.8 142.8 144.9 146.6 148.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 3.89 Prob of RI= 25.5% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)