* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * ELEVEN 09/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 49 54 58 59 59 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 49 54 58 59 59 58 58 58 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 9 5 5 3 7 2 11 7 8 2 5 SHEAR DIR 48 43 44 67 63 5 26 41 21 29 32 166 71 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 151 151 150 149 149 147 145 142 141 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 60 54 52 57 53 60 58 60 63 59 59 57 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 27 25 24 23 35 67 75 93 89 94 92 107 123 LAND (KM) 1450 1468 1490 1540 1589 1683 1788 1893 1988 2040 2081 2114 2182 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.2 121.0 122.6 124.1 125.5 126.8 127.8 128.8 129.7 130.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 523 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 22. 27. 28. 28. 27. 27. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 24. 28. 29. 29. 28. 28. 28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ELEVEN 9/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 32.5% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)