* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 75 71 67 59 50 41 34 26 20 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 75 71 67 59 50 41 31 26 21 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 15 10 15 20 25 32 35 45 55 54 55 SHEAR DIR 300 307 315 310 271 284 268 270 258 257 259 275 286 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.8 23.6 21.9 19.7 16.7 14.8 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 129 128 123 117 100 91 83 76 73 76 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 11 10 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 40 36 39 43 48 50 57 60 67 70 71 63 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 -7 0 0 -3 5 30 18 28 31 19 17 850 MB VORT 0 -14 0 -5 -9 -18 -7 -7 -29 -20 -19 -28 -12 LAND (KM) 61 30 38 67 113 232 330 342 265 218 -22 533 1244 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.6 34.9 35.1 35.3 36.4 38.2 40.0 42.2 44.5 47.0 48.4 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.4 75.9 75.3 74.7 73.2 70.7 67.0 62.7 58.1 53.4 45.7 36.0 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 8 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 651 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -27. -35. -42. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -16. -25. -32. -40. -47. -53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -8. -16. -25. -33. -41. -49. -55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)