* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 38 43 50 58 65 70 76 80 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 38 43 50 58 65 70 76 80 82 84 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 12 17 13 20 11 11 6 2 6 15 16 SHEAR DIR 256 340 14 39 43 35 77 59 132 303 249 284 272 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 160 160 160 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 500-300 MB RH 68 68 65 62 65 73 70 68 63 57 51 52 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 1 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -3 850 MB VORT 37 29 24 23 40 39 35 33 35 52 69 64 70 LAND (KM) 863 796 740 706 671 671 741 840 977 1064 1124 1171 1229 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.8 11.9 13.0 14.3 15.1 16.2 17.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.2 47.2 48.1 49.0 50.6 51.5 52.0 52.1 52.1 52.2 52.6 53.1 HEAT CONTENT 82 75 75 75 70 67 70 72 84 88 92 89 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 72 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 42. 49. 54. 57. 59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 18. 25. 33. 40. 45. 51. 55. 57. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 6.00 Prob of RI= 70.3% is 5.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)