* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 09/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 50 56 60 62 62 61 59 58 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 50 56 60 62 62 61 59 58 57 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 7 7 7 6 9 5 5 8 9 7 9 SHEAR DIR 101 102 106 130 123 123 126 128 106 100 119 158 170 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 148 148 149 148 144 140 137 132 128 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 49 49 51 52 53 52 46 47 45 49 44 51 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 0 1 2 4 850 MB VORT 72 68 61 52 51 41 31 35 37 56 78 82 86 LAND (KM) 2024 2127 2220 2312 2408 2256 2008 1775 1565 1367 1187 1008 825 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.7 129.8 131.0 132.2 134.6 137.1 139.4 141.4 143.2 144.7 146.2 147.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 568 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 9/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 4.52 Prob of RI= 39.1% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)