* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * ELEVEN 09/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 52 54 55 55 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 52 54 55 55 54 53 51 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 9 10 9 9 8 10 10 5 10 9 14 SHEAR DIR 30 23 7 15 31 19 19 23 68 50 73 60 70 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 151 150 148 146 145 143 142 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.5 -51.5 -52.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 50 51 52 50 52 56 54 58 55 58 55 61 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 850 MB VORT 21 25 26 36 46 56 55 59 61 57 58 62 60 LAND (KM) 1451 1488 1531 1579 1627 1731 1840 1959 2070 2182 2299 2330 2162 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.6 120.4 121.4 122.3 124.1 125.8 127.5 129.1 130.6 132.0 133.5 135.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ELEVEN 9/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.29 Prob of RI= 33.1% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)