* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 70 68 66 62 54 44 38 31 25 22 V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 70 68 66 62 54 44 38 29 26 23 SHEAR (KTS) 15 18 10 16 18 15 28 37 48 54 59 62 59 SHEAR DIR 296 315 321 274 292 278 256 248 249 251 255 263 275 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.0 24.6 20.2 19.1 18.3 16.3 14.3 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 127 126 119 107 85 82 79 76 73 74 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.6 -53.2 -54.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 10 8 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 43 47 50 48 46 56 62 58 60 58 52 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -7 -2 1 3 0 9 22 22 9 5 -8 15 850 MB VORT -14 -9 -9 -3 -31 41 42 39 22 18 -13 -37 -7 LAND (KM) 34 42 56 90 135 245 260 270 110 105 -28 500 1120 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.4 35.7 37.1 39.1 41.3 43.6 45.7 47.3 49.1 50.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.4 76.0 75.5 75.0 74.4 72.8 70.2 66.9 63.1 58.6 53.3 46.2 37.8 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 669 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -23. -32. -40. -47. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -29. -36. -42. -48. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -21. -31. -37. -44. -50. -53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 54.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.25 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 3.83 Prob of RI= 9.7% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)