* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 53 59 63 67 70 73 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 53 59 63 67 70 73 77 SHEAR (KTS) 1 7 12 10 13 20 11 14 13 16 9 13 6 SHEAR DIR 94 48 47 63 37 53 69 85 99 95 110 81 71 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 71 63 62 63 68 65 66 58 57 51 49 48 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -5 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 18 11 23 43 49 49 39 24 24 30 36 30 35 LAND (KM) 768 706 648 593 557 562 608 663 674 710 708 709 723 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.6 11.2 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.1 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 47.5 48.7 49.8 50.9 52.7 53.9 54.5 54.7 54.8 55.0 55.4 55.9 HEAT CONTENT 76 82 76 73 73 87 81 72 73 79 89 97 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 516 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 49 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 47. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 34. 38. 42. 45. 48. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 5.21 Prob of RI= 43.8% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)