* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 52 55 60 63 65 64 62 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 52 55 60 63 65 64 62 60 58 56 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 7 11 9 7 7 8 10 10 9 10 13 SHEAR DIR 131 95 96 93 113 93 98 93 104 110 181 187 209 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 147 147 148 148 146 142 138 135 130 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 47 46 47 50 52 49 45 50 49 52 52 49 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 850 MB VORT 62 52 42 45 55 51 43 48 58 78 104 114 111 LAND (KM) 2108 2188 2270 2369 2395 2137 1891 1688 1517 1347 1177 994 807 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.7 130.7 132.0 133.2 135.7 138.1 140.1 141.7 143.2 144.6 146.1 147.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 553 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 21. 19. 17. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 15. 20. 23. 25. 24. 22. 20. 18. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.09 Prob of RI= 29.1% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)