* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 53 54 53 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 53 54 53 52 51 49 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 13 9 9 12 8 9 2 6 4 10 6 SHEAR DIR 17 2 19 28 3 10 351 10 45 16 335 354 321 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 150 150 146 143 142 141 137 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 500-300 MB RH 50 50 48 56 56 57 50 54 53 54 56 56 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 1 1 0 2 0 1 1 -1 -3 0 1 850 MB VORT 18 14 18 35 45 53 61 54 54 53 67 73 88 LAND (KM) 1482 1512 1540 1558 1579 1638 1716 1826 1932 2019 2107 2216 2225 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.1 120.8 121.5 122.1 123.5 125.0 126.5 128.0 129.5 131.0 132.5 134.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. 16. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 3.94 Prob of RI= 26.4% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)