* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 66 64 62 57 49 42 37 31 26 23 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 66 64 62 57 49 42 36 29 28 25 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 10 16 15 24 33 43 52 52 58 59 61 SHEAR DIR 316 332 282 276 284 260 250 244 242 245 245 256 270 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.3 22.7 17.0 19.2 17.5 16.2 14.6 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 128 126 123 113 95 77 82 78 75 73 73 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 10 7 6 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 45 49 47 48 53 58 59 61 61 57 53 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -1 -1 0 0 1 14 11 50 25 0 2 17 850 MB VORT -6 -20 -7 -9 13 70 85 43 14 -6 2 15 35 LAND (KM) 56 63 81 121 164 223 182 94 3 115 -13 551 1380 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.0 35.2 35.7 36.2 37.8 40.1 42.7 45.0 46.6 47.5 49.2 51.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.8 75.5 75.1 74.6 74.0 72.6 69.9 65.9 61.8 57.6 53.7 45.5 34.2 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 639 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -15. -24. -31. -39. -45. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -14. -21. -28. -32. -38. -42. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -28. -33. -39. -44. -47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 10.1% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)