* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 50 57 64 71 75 78 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 50 57 64 71 75 78 82 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 10 11 18 11 11 8 3 6 4 11 7 SHEAR DIR 15 39 41 26 31 57 67 114 97 160 107 138 112 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 9 10 11 11 12 11 13 13 500-300 MB RH 70 63 68 69 69 68 66 52 49 44 45 40 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 0 4 19 20 25 30 28 24 25 30 30 16 11 LAND (KM) 754 712 669 637 623 638 695 678 642 600 567 566 557 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.3 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.4 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.8 48.9 50.0 51.0 52.7 54.0 54.9 55.5 56.1 56.7 57.3 57.9 HEAT CONTENT 75 78 71 68 71 82 79 75 82 85 89 95 111 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 272/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 532 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 21. 28. 36. 43. 49. 53. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 32. 39. 46. 50. 53. 57. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 5.43 Prob of RI= 51.1% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)