* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 51 54 56 56 56 56 54 52 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 51 54 56 56 56 56 54 52 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 10 10 11 8 8 12 11 15 12 12 9 SHEAR DIR 111 95 88 113 96 115 93 104 122 122 173 179 198 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 147 148 149 149 147 143 139 136 131 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 47 47 48 49 50 42 48 50 53 51 44 43 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 850 MB VORT 50 47 52 56 58 56 61 60 79 109 129 128 116 LAND (KM) 2189 2274 2361 2413 2287 2054 1854 1687 1531 1361 1168 1013 890 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.7 131.8 133.1 134.3 136.6 138.6 140.2 141.6 143.1 144.8 146.0 146.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 571 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. 14. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 14. 12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 3.54 Prob of RI= 19.1% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)