* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 59 61 61 60 58 54 51 47 44 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 59 61 61 60 58 54 51 47 44 SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 12 11 11 9 14 7 8 6 9 8 11 SHEAR DIR 347 357 3 359 347 348 351 9 344 12 328 348 360 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 150 150 147 145 143 141 137 132 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.4 -52.1 -51.1 -52.2 -51.4 -52.2 -51.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 55 50 53 56 59 56 60 60 63 61 67 65 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -3 -1 4 3 850 MB VORT 0 4 14 28 28 40 21 10 7 38 62 73 92 LAND (KM) 1525 1550 1567 1591 1617 1677 1730 1790 1838 1875 1911 2007 2164 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.6 121.1 121.8 122.4 123.7 124.8 125.9 126.8 127.9 128.9 130.4 132.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 586 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 3. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. 9. 6. 2. -1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.30 Prob of RI= 33.4% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)