* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 68 68 65 59 51 44 39 35 32 31 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 68 68 65 59 51 44 39 35 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 13 17 15 25 30 42 48 52 53 52 40 SHEAR DIR 329 288 272 268 257 252 238 246 245 245 250 253 254 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.5 25.3 22.3 17.2 19.2 17.6 16.7 14.3 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 126 124 113 93 77 82 78 76 73 73 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 8 7 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 40 48 47 48 50 53 53 56 53 45 51 44 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 1 1 3 9 25 27 7 22 -27 0 850 MB VORT -10 -15 -19 -14 13 38 58 56 72 73 66 122 241 LAND (KM) 64 77 96 122 157 223 172 78 9 128 12 509 1387 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 34.9 35.0 35.6 36.1 37.8 40.3 42.8 45.0 46.5 47.2 49.3 52.4 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 75.4 75.0 74.6 74.1 72.6 69.5 65.4 61.6 57.9 54.2 46.1 34.3 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 621 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -25. -32. -40. -46. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -21. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -19. -26. -31. -35. -38. -39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.43 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 4.22 Prob of RI= 14.5% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)