* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 52 60 66 72 77 81 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 52 60 66 72 77 81 84 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 17 22 19 9 15 6 6 6 5 7 11 SHEAR DIR 33 33 30 42 60 65 89 135 149 166 113 129 108 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 500-300 MB RH 65 70 71 66 64 64 56 52 44 41 41 39 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 -5 -4 -5 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 25 35 35 38 36 36 27 32 38 43 33 31 29 LAND (KM) 706 667 635 635 636 694 751 734 702 650 604 551 511 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.9 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.8 49.9 50.9 51.8 53.2 54.2 54.7 55.2 55.8 56.5 57.3 58.2 HEAT CONTENT 80 72 68 69 81 84 85 87 95 93 89 94 109 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 551 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 21. 29. 37. 43. 50. 55. 59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 35. 41. 47. 52. 56. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 5.64 Prob of RI= 58.2% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)