* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 68 71 73 74 72 69 66 65 63 61 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 68 71 73 74 72 69 66 65 63 61 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 12 15 11 11 13 16 12 11 9 7 4 SHEAR DIR 128 92 104 99 108 102 87 101 112 129 128 171 103 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 151 151 151 150 147 144 141 138 133 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 44 44 46 47 46 43 45 43 51 53 54 48 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 3 850 MB VORT 39 48 54 54 54 57 62 73 102 140 155 144 125 LAND (KM) 2370 2462 2367 2265 2164 1985 1799 1644 1532 1410 1269 1114 946 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.6 133.7 134.8 135.8 137.7 139.5 140.9 141.8 142.8 144.0 145.2 146.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 511 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 16. 14. 11. 10. 8. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 17. 14. 11. 10. 8. 6. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 28.6% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)