* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 58 61 62 64 63 61 57 53 50 46 42 V (KT) LAND 50 55 58 61 62 64 63 61 57 53 50 46 42 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 14 13 14 9 13 10 13 11 12 12 19 SHEAR DIR 352 354 349 348 348 335 358 12 34 33 13 9 16 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 150 149 148 146 144 142 139 136 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 51 51 56 58 56 56 61 66 68 66 59 54 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 0 -5 850 MB VORT 3 13 24 26 34 27 4 7 27 64 79 97 86 LAND (KM) 1555 1588 1611 1629 1650 1702 1753 1808 1869 1943 2012 2089 2170 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 120.9 121.5 122.0 122.5 123.6 124.5 125.5 126.6 127.8 129.2 130.4 131.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 589 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 54 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. 1. -3. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 13. 11. 7. 3. 0. -4. -8. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.21 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 33.0% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)