* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 58 57 55 50 45 42 41 40 38 35 V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 58 57 55 50 45 37 39 38 36 33 SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 17 15 22 32 43 50 53 54 56 54 46 SHEAR DIR 318 283 272 260 253 248 241 246 256 258 262 271 277 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 23.2 17.1 19.1 17.1 14.4 15.8 14.8 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 127 123 118 98 77 82 77 73 75 73 74 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 43 45 46 46 52 59 63 65 61 54 51 44 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 2 0 15 60 54 20 4 2 -19 -2 850 MB VORT -17 -20 -20 13 34 43 23 27 40 52 95 103 73 LAND (KM) 113 114 128 193 240 213 64 56 -2 250 719 1458 662 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.0 35.4 36.3 37.2 39.9 43.0 45.3 47.0 48.5 50.0 51.7 53.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 74.8 74.5 73.7 72.8 69.5 65.1 60.1 55.2 49.6 43.3 33.1 20.1 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 556 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -36. -40. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 25. 29. 32. 31. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -20. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -18. -19. -20. -22. -25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 66.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.36 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 3.84 Prob of RI= 9.9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)