* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 54 64 71 78 84 89 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 54 64 71 78 84 89 92 SHEAR (KTS) 8 14 19 14 10 11 7 3 8 5 7 10 8 SHEAR DIR 40 25 36 57 70 56 167 87 182 249 220 266 240 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 500-300 MB RH 66 68 62 61 62 60 56 51 45 47 51 51 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 -5 -4 2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 26 28 31 34 40 39 46 46 53 55 48 46 40 LAND (KM) 649 637 637 657 680 767 872 926 950 937 930 941 986 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.3 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.1 50.9 51.5 52.0 52.8 53.1 53.2 53.3 53.8 54.5 55.4 56.1 HEAT CONTENT 71 67 70 78 76 79 85 87 90 95 97 101 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 59 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 36. 43. 51. 57. 62. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 39. 46. 53. 59. 64. 67. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 5.18 Prob of RI= 42.7% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)