* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 68 70 73 73 72 70 67 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 68 70 73 73 72 70 67 64 62 60 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 11 8 8 10 14 11 13 11 12 7 10 SHEAR DIR 97 94 94 105 101 85 92 108 108 111 114 133 104 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 151 152 151 149 146 143 140 137 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 41 45 47 44 44 48 53 56 60 61 57 48 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 850 MB VORT 48 49 41 41 45 49 53 80 107 120 124 114 109 LAND (KM) 2465 2369 2275 2184 2093 1902 1750 1605 1469 1347 1231 1110 979 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.7 134.7 135.7 136.6 138.5 139.9 141.2 142.4 143.4 144.3 145.3 146.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 517 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 52 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 16. 13. 10. 8. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. 9. 7. 5. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 4.19 Prob of RI= 31.2% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)