* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 79 80 79 76 71 64 57 52 46 42 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 79 80 79 76 71 64 57 52 46 42 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 10 10 6 10 10 15 15 20 13 19 20 SHEAR DIR 14 6 7 1 7 349 20 26 58 53 55 37 48 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 150 148 147 146 144 142 140 138 135 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -50.9 -52.0 -51.0 -51.9 -51.0 -51.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 52 57 58 55 54 58 57 63 63 70 65 63 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -7 -7 -3 -2 -3 850 MB VORT 12 26 24 36 38 18 10 8 48 59 65 86 80 LAND (KM) 1616 1643 1671 1695 1721 1792 1871 1931 1977 2031 2105 2159 2201 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 121.8 122.3 122.9 123.4 124.7 126.0 127.0 127.8 128.8 130.0 131.0 131.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 573 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. 0. -6. -11. -17. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 14. 15. 14. 11. 6. -1. -8. -13. -19. -23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 85.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.49 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 45.0% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)