* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 49 53 55 54 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 49 53 55 54 53 52 49 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 4 3 6 11 11 15 17 28 18 16 1 SHEAR DIR 102 90 87 96 63 16 14 34 29 24 22 4 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 151 150 150 149 149 150 148 145 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -50.8 -51.7 -50.7 -52.3 -50.6 -52.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 6 4 500-300 MB RH 64 63 69 67 67 71 71 76 77 78 77 75 69 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 1 0 -2 -1 -5 7 10 10 7 4 0 850 MB VORT -19 -8 -7 5 7 40 70 79 85 83 70 51 45 LAND (KM) 941 982 1032 1094 1164 1274 1346 1404 1434 1438 1372 1262 1079 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.0 111.0 112.1 113.1 115.3 117.2 118.4 119.2 119.7 119.7 119.7 119.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 542 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 67 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 24. 29. 31. 30. 29. 29. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 34. 33. 32. 29. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.94 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.26 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 35.1% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)