* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 27 32 36 44 51 55 55 52 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 32 36 44 51 55 55 52 48 46 44 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 16 15 16 18 19 16 18 18 13 16 3 SHEAR DIR 356 345 332 324 328 321 322 308 288 309 282 315 101 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.2 27.6 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 165 165 163 156 149 143 135 127 123 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.7 -50.9 -51.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 11 10 10 8 5 3 2 3 3 500-300 MB RH 69 70 69 61 61 64 59 64 57 61 58 60 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -3 -1 -1 -1 -12 -5 4 -2 -6 -3 -3 0 850 MB VORT 13 13 7 5 2 -2 8 19 32 54 86 88 97 LAND (KM) 422 392 378 393 411 458 567 719 801 952 1074 1190 1224 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.8 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.6 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.6 99.2 100.8 102.3 105.6 108.9 112.0 115.1 117.9 120.1 121.7 122.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 620 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 80 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 19. 26. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 30. 31. 29. 26. 24. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 31. 35. 35. 32. 28. 26. 24. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.05 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 4.46 Prob of RI= 36.6% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)