* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 53 53 51 47 44 42 43 42 39 35 V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 53 53 51 47 41 38 39 38 35 31 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 15 19 23 36 45 50 53 53 50 45 34 SHEAR DIR 294 278 259 252 249 243 241 246 261 270 275 278 275 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.4 20.2 16.5 17.7 14.5 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 126 120 114 85 76 78 73 74 74 74 74 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 45 43 48 50 61 58 57 60 56 52 49 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 3 2 2 7 23 24 11 0 4 -1 -5 2 850 MB VORT -21 -22 10 33 49 58 34 19 8 9 53 88 74 LAND (KM) 127 145 180 254 277 144 8 120 132 665 1137 1268 576 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.3 35.8 37.0 38.1 41.2 44.0 46.5 48.6 50.1 51.1 52.7 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.4 73.9 72.8 71.7 68.8 64.7 58.5 51.2 44.1 37.6 29.0 18.8 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 475 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -23. -29. -35. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 23. 30. 35. 37. 34. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -11. -12. -14. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -12. -13. -16. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 3.89 Prob of RI= 10.4% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)