* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 73 73 73 71 70 67 66 64 63 61 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 73 73 73 71 70 67 66 64 63 61 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 9 14 14 11 13 10 11 7 8 6 6 SHEAR DIR 122 108 92 103 108 79 82 73 113 94 151 127 129 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 151 150 147 143 139 137 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 500-300 MB RH 45 42 45 43 48 47 50 53 56 53 45 48 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 3 0 7 7 1 850 MB VORT 55 52 48 58 61 64 67 94 128 135 152 141 143 LAND (KM) 2364 2263 2164 2067 1970 1780 1629 1478 1342 1221 1115 994 859 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 134.8 135.8 136.8 137.8 139.6 141.0 142.3 143.4 144.4 145.3 146.3 147.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 85.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.49 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.08 Prob of RI= 28.9% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)