* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 82 81 76 72 67 63 59 55 50 47 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 82 81 76 72 67 63 59 55 50 47 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 17 12 13 15 11 15 9 12 13 19 14 SHEAR DIR 355 355 358 352 338 349 14 42 51 18 26 36 40 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 149 148 146 146 144 142 141 140 136 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 57 55 53 54 58 61 66 70 74 70 72 75 73 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -2 0 0 0 -7 -1 850 MB VORT 32 27 29 39 40 20 20 22 46 58 97 101 118 LAND (KM) 1682 1703 1725 1747 1771 1823 1863 1931 2005 2054 2090 2135 2168 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 122.7 123.1 123.7 124.2 125.2 126.0 127.0 128.2 129.0 129.6 130.4 131.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 11. 8. 4. -1. -6. -10. -15. -21. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 7. 7. 6. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -25. -28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 25.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.17 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.60 Prob of RI= 20.1% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)