* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 44 42 39 37 36 35 37 40 39 36 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 44 42 39 37 36 35 37 39 39 36 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 16 24 26 37 47 53 57 54 53 46 38 SHEAR DIR 281 255 250 248 250 240 245 257 265 272 279 276 276 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.5 24.1 17.1 19.3 16.4 14.0 15.4 14.4 15.1 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 121 114 104 77 82 76 72 74 73 74 74 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 44 42 44 47 58 54 58 61 60 57 53 51 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 6 5 10 8 34 31 25 0 2 -7 -10 -1 850 MB VORT -30 2 11 53 61 56 40 35 0 21 23 46 90 LAND (KM) 128 193 254 279 227 140 40 5 424 985 1456 940 477 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.1 36.8 38.1 39.3 42.5 45.1 47.4 49.4 51.1 52.6 53.6 54.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 73.7 72.9 71.7 70.5 66.6 60.7 54.2 47.3 39.8 31.8 24.3 17.3 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 725 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -33. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 22. 28. 36. 41. 42. 39. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -11. -9. -9. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -13. -10. -11. -14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.25 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.37 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 2.71 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)