* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 60 69 74 78 81 85 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 60 69 74 78 81 85 89 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 5 2 3 5 3 13 12 16 10 12 12 SHEAR DIR 14 31 46 291 33 198 285 207 247 232 267 241 292 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 11 12 13 13 13 12 14 13 500-300 MB RH 63 59 61 60 62 54 46 43 41 39 39 38 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 7 1 3 4 850 MB VORT 20 17 14 11 8 10 1 12 10 13 19 16 18 LAND (KM) 526 542 569 543 512 411 311 263 271 311 366 389 344 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.5 54.4 55.3 56.1 57.5 58.8 60.1 61.5 63.0 64.8 66.7 68.6 HEAT CONTENT 86 84 79 74 73 79 104 83 88 83 92 100 125 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 30. 39. 44. 50. 54. 59. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 35. 44. 49. 53. 56. 60. 64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 5.55 Prob of RI= 55.0% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)