* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 77 77 76 74 71 68 66 64 61 60 V (KT) LAND 70 74 76 77 77 76 74 71 68 66 64 61 60 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 13 13 14 11 10 14 10 10 9 10 8 SHEAR DIR 102 112 102 121 103 83 89 106 113 121 123 112 123 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 151 151 148 145 141 138 136 132 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 46 43 41 45 47 50 51 53 52 46 46 47 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 5 850 MB VORT 65 66 71 70 66 74 95 118 136 144 124 117 126 LAND (KM) 2291 2186 2083 1977 1872 1702 1561 1429 1308 1187 1066 946 826 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.6 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.6 136.7 137.8 138.8 140.3 141.5 142.6 143.6 144.6 145.6 146.6 147.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.39 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.85 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 4.21 Prob of RI= 31.5% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)