* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 73 69 64 60 56 51 47 42 38 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 73 69 64 60 56 51 47 42 38 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 14 11 12 10 12 10 12 12 15 18 24 SHEAR DIR 351 359 349 338 356 12 27 40 12 10 354 26 36 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 148 147 144 142 141 139 136 133 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -50.8 -52.1 -51.0 -52.1 -51.0 -51.9 -50.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 500-300 MB RH 54 56 55 56 57 62 64 67 65 61 57 58 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 -4 -3 -7 -4 -1 -2 850 MB VORT 27 30 34 38 24 20 18 24 43 65 93 80 90 LAND (KM) 1727 1767 1810 1839 1869 1920 1976 2017 2052 2097 2129 2195 2280 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.7 124.4 125.0 125.6 126.6 127.7 128.6 129.3 130.1 130.9 131.9 133.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 568 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -19. -23. -29. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -33. -37. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.24 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.01 Prob of RI= 27.6% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)