* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 36 42 46 47 48 48 46 43 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 36 42 46 47 48 48 46 43 SHEAR (KTS) 0 4 5 7 10 14 18 16 25 21 24 10 11 SHEAR DIR 201 20 24 1 3 8 17 24 19 13 2 10 353 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 150 149 149 150 150 150 149 144 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -50.8 -52.3 -50.7 -52.5 -50.8 -52.8 -51.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 69 69 68 70 73 71 77 77 78 78 82 74 70 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 1 0 -1 -6 0 0 3 4 12 4 6 850 MB VORT -20 -13 -16 -19 -26 6 62 78 66 48 24 5 7 LAND (KM) 1039 1105 1179 1266 1332 1430 1518 1575 1578 1489 1368 1207 1056 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.2 13.0 14.2 16.0 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.8 112.9 114.0 115.0 117.0 118.5 119.5 119.8 119.5 119.2 119.1 119.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 65 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 24. 24. 23. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 26. 27. 28. 28. 26. 23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 88.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 1.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.09 Scaled RI index= 3.97 Prob of RI= 27.0% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)