* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 45 53 59 60 59 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 45 53 59 60 59 58 56 53 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 13 11 12 14 14 13 19 13 21 6 7 SHEAR DIR 354 350 352 331 310 311 319 319 343 334 328 287 315 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 161 157 153 152 150 147 145 140 129 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.2 -52.1 -50.9 -52.2 -50.9 -52.6 -51.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 500-300 MB RH 70 62 61 66 66 63 66 68 69 68 72 66 66 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -6 -5 -4 -6 0 -2 -7 -8 -2 -3 1 12 850 MB VORT 5 -8 -20 -21 -16 -12 4 31 48 54 34 29 33 LAND (KM) 485 525 560 617 699 861 1029 1132 1244 1265 1270 1237 1174 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 102.7 104.4 106.2 107.9 111.0 113.9 116.4 118.4 119.6 120.7 121.5 121.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 18. 25. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 35. 38. 38. 36. 34. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 39. 40. 39. 38. 36. 33. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.31 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 141.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.03 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 33.0% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)