* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 53 50 48 45 42 42 43 41 36 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 53 44 37 35 32 33 34 31 27 SHEAR (KTS) 18 25 25 28 32 40 51 52 51 51 51 47 40 SHEAR DIR 262 257 251 255 239 245 244 259 262 268 275 278 278 SST (C) 26.3 25.6 24.7 22.6 19.1 17.8 16.5 13.3 15.4 14.0 14.5 15.4 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 115 108 95 82 78 76 72 74 72 73 74 76 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 44 55 55 59 60 66 66 62 54 56 58 61 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 10 10 6 26 39 7 14 4 9 0 -5 -1 850 MB VORT 10 11 27 64 67 34 22 4 9 35 45 67 106 LAND (KM) 196 239 251 174 158 -14 -22 238 762 1304 1156 739 390 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.6 38.7 40.2 41.6 44.7 47.8 49.6 50.9 52.3 54.1 54.0 52.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.6 72.6 71.5 70.0 68.5 63.5 56.9 50.1 43.0 35.5 27.7 21.3 16.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 740 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 67 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -41. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 29. 37. 43. 44. 41. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -12. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -14. -19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.42 SST (C) : Value: 23.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 3.12 Prob of RI= 3.6% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)