* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 62 72 78 82 86 89 92 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 62 72 78 82 86 89 92 SHEAR (KTS) 4 1 5 4 2 6 4 11 9 14 4 10 7 SHEAR DIR 35 38 342 10 106 255 236 231 229 243 235 244 210 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 60 62 62 62 61 58 51 52 48 40 38 36 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 -3 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 28 30 26 27 24 17 9 20 15 11 -5 -13 -26 LAND (KM) 664 698 689 667 624 583 585 579 585 594 596 508 419 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 53.8 54.6 55.3 55.9 56.9 57.6 58.3 59.0 59.7 60.4 61.1 61.8 HEAT CONTENT 82 84 75 84 90 93 107 121 129 119 102 100 114 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 699 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 32. 41. 46. 51. 56. 61. 65. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 16. 26. 37. 47. 53. 57. 61. 64. 67. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.98 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 5.51 Prob of RI= 53.7% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)