* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 58 64 67 71 73 74 76 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 58 64 67 71 73 74 76 SHEAR (KTS) 20 16 15 11 11 9 9 12 6 11 7 16 18 SHEAR DIR 281 293 290 301 299 311 343 333 352 297 288 280 275 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 42 44 46 50 48 43 41 36 37 34 36 36 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 7 6 4 9 8 5 0 0 -1 0 2 1 850 MB VORT -5 -2 5 19 18 11 8 -8 -9 -8 -10 -2 3 LAND (KM) 411 373 349 353 377 358 357 377 379 285 205 97 5 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.5 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 63.8 64.7 65.6 66.4 68.0 69.5 70.9 72.3 74.0 75.6 77.0 78.2 HEAT CONTENT 93 78 67 67 67 56 64 59 69 71 91 92 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 36. 41. 45. 47. 49. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 33. 39. 42. 46. 48. 49. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.94 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 5.35 Prob of RI= 48.4% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)