* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 79 78 76 73 70 67 65 63 61 59 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 79 78 76 73 70 67 65 63 61 59 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 14 15 13 13 11 15 11 10 9 11 18 SHEAR DIR 118 110 117 102 106 102 104 141 149 134 154 170 201 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 150 148 145 141 139 136 132 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 500-300 MB RH 41 41 43 46 45 46 51 46 44 40 38 40 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -3 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 3 2 0 850 MB VORT 57 68 65 66 73 92 112 144 149 148 130 145 143 LAND (KM) 2187 2085 1985 1889 1795 1645 1528 1401 1270 1130 972 840 725 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 135.7 136.8 137.8 138.7 139.6 141.0 142.0 143.0 144.1 145.3 146.7 147.7 148.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 575 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 76.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.40 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.97 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 4.30 Prob of RI= 33.3% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)