* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 73 72 69 66 62 58 54 50 45 42 V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 73 72 69 66 62 58 54 50 45 42 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 11 11 11 11 13 11 16 14 19 23 31 SHEAR DIR 356 340 353 10 18 16 36 23 32 25 26 52 48 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 147 146 143 142 140 139 137 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 500-300 MB RH 58 55 53 55 58 64 66 69 70 65 64 64 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 1 3 3 0 -3 0 -2 0 -10 2 0 850 MB VORT 31 41 41 28 32 44 48 62 70 80 90 109 95 LAND (KM) 1797 1825 1854 1881 1911 1972 2011 2068 2120 2174 2207 2281 2264 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.6 125.2 125.8 126.4 127.4 128.4 129.3 130.1 130.9 131.6 132.6 133.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 601 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -27. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. -33. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.37 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 24.7% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)