* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 38 44 46 46 46 46 46 45 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 38 44 46 46 46 46 46 45 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 6 8 10 16 21 21 30 26 26 12 11 SHEAR DIR 50 29 5 5 353 8 27 28 30 28 24 344 14 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 150 149 150 150 151 150 149 145 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 67 67 68 72 71 74 74 78 75 76 75 73 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -3 -3 -4 1 -5 1 6 7 2 3 3 0 850 MB VORT -18 -12 -13 -20 -2 38 82 101 83 84 84 88 94 LAND (KM) 1133 1195 1252 1280 1314 1408 1483 1565 1587 1534 1385 1205 1026 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.9 15.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.9 119.3 120.2 120.5 119.9 119.1 118.6 118.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 474 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 23. 24. 23. 23. 24. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 24. 26. 26. 26. 26. 26. 25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 88.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 1.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.05 Scaled RI index= 4.29 Prob of RI= 33.3% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)