* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 25 30 36 42 52 61 65 65 64 61 61 58 V (KT) LAND 20 25 30 36 42 52 61 65 65 64 61 61 58 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 11 12 15 15 12 16 22 18 19 12 10 SHEAR DIR 5 355 346 327 315 325 358 352 6 357 351 298 335 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.7 26.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 160 156 155 153 151 149 148 148 144 135 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 500-300 MB RH 65 61 65 68 66 68 70 73 69 76 70 68 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -4 -1 -1 -2 1 -2 -2 0 1 3 1 7 850 MB VORT -5 -11 -12 -11 -8 0 15 45 56 78 63 69 59 LAND (KM) 523 562 622 702 786 1000 1087 1211 1300 1313 1228 1093 986 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.9 17.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.8 106.5 108.2 109.8 112.8 115.3 117.2 118.6 119.1 119.3 119.5 120.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 596 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 66 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 39. 41. 41. 39. 39. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 16. 22. 32. 41. 45. 45. 44. 41. 41. 38. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.99 Prob of RI= 60.5% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)