* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 51 50 48 46 44 44 43 40 35 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 51 42 37 35 33 34 33 29 24 SHEAR (KTS) 28 24 29 35 41 50 51 52 52 47 43 32 25 SHEAR DIR 256 257 247 244 240 241 252 262 264 264 264 256 248 SST (C) 25.8 25.0 23.5 19.5 15.9 18.1 14.7 13.9 14.3 14.4 15.2 15.4 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 110 100 83 75 79 73 72 73 73 74 74 73 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 53 55 61 63 65 64 63 60 55 58 62 47 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 9 4 27 41 34 15 4 0 -7 -5 -4 9 850 MB VORT 2 16 39 37 29 40 10 11 41 63 78 144 226 LAND (KM) 243 271 216 193 52 19 13 507 1066 1389 841 419 154 LAT (DEG N) 37.4 38.6 39.7 41.5 43.2 46.6 48.7 50.5 51.9 52.9 53.6 54.3 55.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.4 70.1 68.1 66.1 60.3 53.7 46.6 38.9 30.9 22.8 16.4 11.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 701 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -24. -31. -36. -42. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 25. 31. 40. 44. 44. 40. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -14. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -15. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.28 SST (C) : Value: 21.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 42.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.14 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 2.86 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)