* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 43 54 65 74 79 84 87 89 92 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 43 54 65 74 79 84 87 89 92 SHEAR (KTS) 1 6 7 5 3 5 9 9 17 13 13 7 13 SHEAR DIR 301 323 7 33 227 305 238 246 218 255 228 256 209 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 62 61 61 58 58 58 52 52 48 46 42 43 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 34 27 24 31 37 23 26 28 23 21 17 3 0 LAND (KM) 680 717 709 685 658 632 644 672 701 746 687 635 618 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 54.1 54.7 55.2 55.6 56.4 57.0 57.5 58.0 58.6 59.2 59.7 60.0 HEAT CONTENT 84 83 79 87 93 91 105 112 112 109 100 91 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 612 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 33. 42. 47. 53. 57. 62. 65. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 18. 29. 40. 49. 54. 59. 62. 64. 67. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.88 Scaled RI index= 5.89 Prob of RI= 66.5% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)