* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 61 66 71 73 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 61 66 71 73 75 76 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 14 14 13 12 11 12 11 14 13 14 21 SHEAR DIR 281 288 288 296 297 317 315 336 297 321 274 301 268 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 12 11 12 11 13 11 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 39 44 49 50 46 48 43 43 40 43 40 42 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 5 2 7 7 7 -1 0 -5 1 -3 3 0 850 MB VORT -7 0 17 19 11 15 0 4 -5 1 7 34 36 LAND (KM) 396 368 356 369 400 392 392 411 412 318 220 127 44 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.4 23.0 22.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 64.0 64.8 65.6 66.4 67.9 69.4 70.9 72.3 73.9 75.4 76.8 78.0 HEAT CONTENT 93 75 66 66 65 56 66 62 68 71 89 93 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 533 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 36. 42. 46. 48. 50. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 36. 41. 46. 48. 50. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)