* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 76 75 72 68 66 64 61 60 59 58 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 76 75 72 68 66 64 61 60 59 58 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 11 12 14 15 17 11 11 11 9 5 16 SHEAR DIR 120 117 109 95 98 96 115 147 142 164 154 165 194 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 150 147 144 140 137 133 131 128 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 500-300 MB RH 46 46 48 48 50 50 56 53 41 37 41 40 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 4 4 0 2 850 MB VORT 61 66 65 74 80 104 121 153 143 143 135 133 151 LAND (KM) 2122 2031 1941 1856 1771 1626 1479 1343 1202 1081 975 845 690 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.4 137.4 138.3 139.1 139.9 141.2 142.4 143.5 144.6 145.6 146.5 147.5 148.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 569 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 76.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.40 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 32.5% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)