* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 82 82 78 73 67 61 56 51 47 44 V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 82 82 78 73 67 61 56 51 47 44 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 11 11 10 15 13 17 16 15 15 24 23 SHEAR DIR 326 351 10 6 19 20 38 33 56 12 27 40 59 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 147 144 143 141 139 137 135 133 131 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.0 -51.9 -50.7 -52.0 -50.8 -51.7 -50.7 -51.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 55 54 59 59 59 62 64 67 59 63 60 64 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 2 2 3 0 0 -1 0 0 0 11 6 850 MB VORT 43 45 36 36 40 54 76 76 64 94 118 130 104 LAND (KM) 1832 1866 1901 1930 1961 2029 2077 2128 2166 2231 2307 2261 2211 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.3 125.9 126.5 127.1 128.3 129.2 130.1 130.9 131.9 133.0 133.8 134.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 657 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -19. -23. -28. -32. -36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.41 Prob of RI= 35.5% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)