* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 36 41 44 46 44 42 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 36 41 44 46 44 42 41 40 38 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 11 12 14 20 23 28 26 26 18 18 10 SHEAR DIR 52 21 17 9 10 10 22 27 35 20 38 13 43 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 150 149 150 151 150 149 144 135 121 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.1 -52.2 -50.7 -52.4 -50.5 -52.6 -51.2 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 66 69 73 71 68 74 73 74 74 76 72 75 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 2 4 7 6 0 4 850 MB VORT -20 -21 -25 -6 0 27 85 95 95 53 35 19 31 LAND (KM) 1187 1253 1280 1311 1348 1446 1527 1577 1534 1424 1241 1050 838 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.3 15.9 17.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.9 118.5 119.8 120.7 120.7 120.1 119.5 119.0 118.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 526 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 24. 22. 21. 20. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 87.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.96 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 4.66 Prob of RI= 45.6% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)